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DECs rentekutt er egentlig ikke så stort etter min mening
heller ikke nedsenkningen
og mengden QE som har blitt antydet, er ikke nok til å fullstendig løse likviditetsproblemene / betydelig forbedre risikoviljen
Må tvinge Fed til en mye mer brutal korreksjon etter min mening, ellers fortsetter vi sannsynligvis å gå på avstand
Jokeren her er Nvidia Wednesday. Hvis inntektene overrasker betydelig, vil dyreånden sannsynligvis komme tilbake uansett hva Fed sier eller gjør for nå
17. nov., 23:30
The macro backdrop is finally starting to improve:
- The government shutdown is over
- The China–US trade deal is locked in
- QT ends on December 1st
- Light QE is on deck
The only real headwind right now are falling odds of rate cuts.
Markets are pricing just a 43% chance of a December cut which is dragging prices down.
But with a hoard of macro data dropping this week, we should get much more clarity on where things head next.
But remember: that incoming data could still be bad, which may push rate-cut odds even lower.
*tga
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