One of the most important themes in the next 12 months will be widening crypto credit spreads to falling risk free rates, discussed 45min in the link below. DeFi in the last cycle lived in a vacuum with no real connective tissue to legacy fixed income markets. Now as rates fall and crypto native spreads widen there are a variety of vehicles through which dollars will effortlessly enter DeFi on a scale that dwarfs 2021. I expect to see several ETPs on the underlying and DATs focused on raising accretive debt financing to deploy into DeFi in order to monetize the spread. This will be a $50-100b TradFi to DeFi carry trade. Some tokens are mechanically levered to this trade: $AAVE $PENDLE $SPK $SYRUP being the most obvious

Feel more confident that USDe will become a $50b+ asset in the next 3yrs than if you had asked me if we would get to $10b when we first launched. To date we have minted & redeemed $18b+ in supply returning $450m+ in cash rewards to (s)USDe users without a single basis point of loss. Hard to put into words how grateful we are for every single dollar that has helped to bootstrap us to this milestone. Without you Ethena would be nothing; and I would be no one.

Escape velocity

USDe supply is up $3.1 billion in <20 days, with more inflows than: -all BTC ETFs combined -every BTC ETF including IBIT -every ETH ETF including ETHA And rates aren't even near froth yet

The Tether USDT supply is the most impressive chart I've ever seen in any context in any industry ever And my expectation is this number >5x in the next 5 years

I remember when Ethena first launched one of the many criticisms was it couldn't scale beyond $1-2b in supply USDe supply +$1,600,000,000 in 7 days

It is now obvious that the growth of digital dollars and stablecoins is not only the most important story in crypto, but all of finance. There are hundreds of billions in latent TradFi demand for crypto exposure, but this demand is primarily focused on a narrow subset of themes: BTC, ETH & stablecoins. The launch of StablecoinX will provide the first pure play exposure for equity investors to the fastest growing company in the most important thematic trend in crypto: digital dollars upgrading money into the internet era and eating all of finance in the process.

The relative TradFi interest in BTC and ETH v Q4 completely different picture: BTC CME OI: -30% from Q4 peak ETH CME OI: +50% from Q4 peak Tom Lee might be king of the KOLs

The growth profile for USDe has always been non-linear and hard to forecast with periods of parabolic expansion, followed by months of flat or bleeding supply that sets higher lows through time USDe supply is back into growth for the first time in ~3 months with $300m added in the last few days to get back to ~$5b The last growth period for USDe in October last year added ~$4b of supply in under 8 weeks where inflows outpaced the majority of BTC ETFs and all ETH ETFs combined That period of growth was with a fraction of the current distribution channels we have put in place since then I expect this next leg up will be more violent than the last

fully hedged on everything its fucking time