The biggest driver of liquidity is cross-border flows, not the Fed If you get the flow of international capital right, you get the next five years right @Globalflows

ICYMI NEW POD: Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts We Cover: 🔸 Credit-driven liquidity behind spring/summer rally 🔸 Fed hawkishness and rising real rates 🔸 Auto-loan stress vs broader recession risks 🔸 Geopolitics & trade flows reshaping global liquidity @Globalflows @fejau_inc Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:44 Macro & the Credit Cycle 05:22 Quantifying Credit Growth 09:43 Grayscale Ad 10:24 Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot 13:41 Recession Odds 16:38 Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy 20:28 Market Dispersion & Mag7 21:22 Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics 25:59 Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows 29:28 Grayscale Ad 30:16 Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t) 35:08 U.S.-China Trade Constraints 40:29 Bitcoin & Neutral Assets 47:21 View on U.S. Equities 50:57 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

The Fed pivoted hawkish, but the long end is telling you it isn't breaking the economy If bonds aren’t bidding while equities fall, the shift is more likely a repricing of growth expectations than a recession signal @Globalflows