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There’s a saying that floats around frequently on my feed: “You are only as good as your last trade.” I find it deeply misleading and, frankly, wrong. I don’t even understand what the point of it is supposed to be.
One trade is nothing more than a single data point in a large distribution. Randomness exerts such a large degree of influence on it that true skill barely registers in that moment. A single outcome cannot and will not reveal the quality of your strategy, your decision-making, your trade management, or any other variable worth measuring.
In reality, the opposite is true: only after a large body of trades do the real patterns emerge. That’s when you can see if your strategy holds up, if the numbers you expected are reliable, if it is truly profitable or not and whether your own management of those trades supported that outcome.
Only over a significant sample size do meaningful conclusions evolve out of the noise. Maybe I’ve misunderstood what it’s meant to convey, and I’m happy to stand corrected if someone can explain it, but to me, it simply makes no sense at all.
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